Posted by
cycators on Tuesday, November 04, 2008 3:21:43 PM
Cisco Systems Inc. reports fiscal first-quarter financial
results on Wednesday. The following is a summary of key developments
and analyst opinion related to the period.
OVERVIEW:
As the world's largest maker of computer networking gear, Cisco is tied
to the investment cycles of its large corporate and telecom customers.
It was more than a year ago that it started to notice the slowdown in
spending that has worsened into the current crisis, though the effects
were mild.
Analysts expect the company to have
experienced a more pronounced weakness in orders in the quarter that
ended Oct. 24, but most see Cisco as a reasonably solid bet in a
downturn, given its wide portfolio and market leadership in Internet
routers.
Smaller competitor Juniper Networks Inc.
reported solid results for the quarter. Motorola Inc., which competes
with Cisco in equipment for cable operators, also reported relatively
steady results.
BY THE NUMBERS: Analysts polled by
Thomson Reuters expect the company to post earnings of 39 cents per
share, on $10.3 billion in revenue. That's short of the company's own
revenue forecast for sales growth of 8 percent from a year earlier,
which works out to $10.7 billion.
For the current
quarter, analysts expect earnings of 40 cents per share on revenue of
$10.49 billion.
ANALYST TAKE: Credit Suisse analyst
Paul Silverstein cut his target price on the stock from $25 to $19 on
Monday, saying investors haven't fully realized that the current fiscal
year will see slower growth in all segments. Over the longer term, the
stock is still attractive, Silverstein said, rating it
"Neutral."
In a Sunday note, Simon Leopold at Morgan
Keegan described the opposite view, saying investors are already aware
of the economic headwinds, and won't be surprised by lowered forecasts
from the company. He rates the company
"Outperform."
WHAT'S AHEAD: Cisco had $19.8 billion
in net cash, or $3.29 per share, at the end of last quarter, so the
company can keep trucking through a credit crunch. Executives have
emphasized that the company sees market downturns as an opportunity to
invest and grab market share.
"Like in the previous
tech downturn, Cisco can use its strength to invest while others hunker
down; we think it emerges stronger," wrote Morgan Keegan's
Leopold.
STOCK PERFORMANCE: The stock fell 25 percent
in the quarter to end at $16.31. The low of $15.90 hit Oct. 24 was the
lowest since 2003, after the Internet boom. On Monday afternoon, the
stock was down 75 cents, or 4.2 percent, at $17.02.